Dell and Lenovo have announced that they will soon launch PCs in Europe with the open-source operating system Linux pre-installed. Dell already offers Linux machines in the US, and says its appearance in the UK is a response to rising demand as logged through its online ordering system. According to Dell, up to 30,000 buyers have already asked for pre-installed Linux.

This may reflect a recent upturn in interest, but open-source enthusiasts say it shows a demand that already existed, which just didn’t show up until big PC suppliers started raising it as an option. Linux is already widely used at the server level, and has a growing number of desktop users enthused by its capabilities as well as cost.

Better the devil you know…
Despite this movement at the margins away from the dominant Windows standard, few – even among its enthusiasts – are expecting a sudden switchover of businesses to Linux, because of:

• Limited cost savings: while the freeware makes Linux machines cheaper than equivalents with Windows, the saving may not be great: operating system works out at less than 5% of total ownership cost over the 4-5 year lifetime of most machines
• Costs of switching: users, in-house IT support and suppliers you share data with are all likely to have grown up with Windows, so will need to be retrained
• Limited support: although Ubuntu (the system chosen by Dell), Red Hat and others provide support for their Linux packages, manufacturers who pre-instal Linux may not offer as much as much as they normally do, and support is scaled-down if Linux is installed on a machine they supplied with Windows
• Missing functions? Although manufacturers’ pre-installation will include a range of drivers, these may not be as comprehensive as for Windows, forcing purchasers into more configuration and downloading before their new machine works fully
• No killer application: while Linux users say it does things better, the system does not do anything major that latest Windows versions cannot

But the standardisation and easy integration of software, achieved by buying it all from Microsoft, becomes less of an advantage as common programs become more mature, and as Microsoft is forced to release code so that others can design compatible alternatives. While Dell says it is responding to a rise in demand, its offer of Linux with technical support is expected to fuel that demand, by removing the perceived risk of jumping from Windows.

A more balanced battle ahead
With more sales, Linux developers will be able to step up their investment in new applications and user-friendliness: so by this time next year, say some Lino-philes, the open system could be viable in the mass market as an alternative to Microsoft’s previously closed book. Compared with Windows, Linux can already offer:

• Greater security: because users can adapt the underlying code for themselves, Linux is viewed as less prone than Windows to hackers and viruses; Microsoft critics say the seamless linking of its programs within Windows makes them inherently more likely to pick up and transmit viruses, so they will always be the mischief makers’ preferred target
• Reliability: Linux avoids the complication that Windows has developed over successive updates, and users say this makes it a faster and more stable system
• Growing cost advantage: as hardware costs fall, the premium paid for proprietary software becomes more significant, and Linux delivers a bigger lifetime cost saving – already significant in emerging markets where software is the biggest cost
• User equanimity: for computers away from the desktop – including PDAs, kiosks – users hardly notice which operating system they’re using, and Linux (which can run all familiar programs including Microsoft’s) offers a more straightforward cost saving
• Community support: whereas Windows support has to come from within Microsoft, Linux has a large community of developers that may be just as good as solving any technical difficulties
• Familiarity at the core: Linux, descended from Unix, is already in use in many servers, giving in-house technical familiarity – and supporting the contention that Linux is genuinely more immune to viruses, not just less targeted by their creators because of its lower uptake

Watch the new uptake
New dawns for Linux have been proclaimed before, only for Microsoft to hit back with Windows updates that close perceived technical gaps. The Redmond-based giant claims to have done so again with the launch of Windows Vista earlier this year. But the greater difficulty of migrating to this from Windows’ previous incarnations may have opened users’ minds to a change of operating system when they give up their current XP. And big government departments around the world have been especially keen adopters of Linux, something to keep in mind if you plan to do business with them.

The bottom line: if your CTO or other tech-savvy colleagues urge you to back Linux as the next step to cost-effective IT, ask for some detailed ROI calculations – as well as a demonstration of how your present programs would work on the new system. But look out for feedback from the growing number who’ll now be changing systems as a result of the PC makers’ actions, and compare it with those who upgrade to Vista. The moment when it makes financial sense to switch has probably not arrived yet, but could be getting close.

What do you think?
Have you made the switch to Linux? Did it bring financial results? Or are we underestimating the risks?

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