Forecasting finance: The benefits of attempting the impossible

When it comes to adjusting existing financial arrangements or making new investment decisions, a little prescience can be a precious thing. The problem is, it’s hard enough getting a trustworthy snapshot of things as they are, let alone some film footage from tomorrow. In truth, most models exist to massage reality rather than foretell it, and to give people numerical authority for what intuition or experience are already telling them.

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