Obama, the unhappy CFO and the warning to UK politicians

But Joe is officially wrong. The National Bureau of Economic Research, a non-profit body generally considered the final arbiter of start and end dates for  economic cycles and trends in the US, declared on Sunday recession ended in June 2009.economic cycles and trends in the US, declared on Sunday recession ended in June 2009. The recession lasted 18 months and was the longest after the World War II, overtaking the previous record of 16 months.

 

“The committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009,” the bureau said on Monday, adding, “The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion.”

 

Of course it's not as simple as that, as President Obama found when he was barracked (sorry!) during a televised 'town hall' meeting with US voters. ''I'm exhausted of defending you, defending your administration, defending the mantle of change that I voted for,'' said one female CFO in the audience. ''I've been told that I voted for a man who was going to change things in a meaningful way for the middle class and I'm waiting sir, I'm waiting. I still don't feel it yet.''

 

Obama was at least candid. “Even though economists may say that the recession officially ended last year, obviously for the millions of people who are still out of work, people who have seen their home values decline, people who are struggling to pay their bills day to day, it’s still very real for them,” Obama said. "Something that took ten years to create is going to take a little more time to solve."

 

As the party conference season gets underway in the UK  - in the wake of the calls for strike action from the TUC last week - it will be informative to watch how each party reacts to our own situation. It can be reasonably assumed that Labour will maintain its state of denial over who ran the economy for the past 12 years and insist on the need for more spending as stimulus. Equally predictable will be George Osborne wearing his 'this is going to hurt you more than it hurts me' face at the Tories shindig while David Cameron does his 'tough but fair' line. Nick Clegg seems to have just about survived the Liberal Democrat conference and doled out a few realities to the assembled flock in the process.

 

But hanging over all three conferences will be the spectre of the Comprehensive Spending Review, the point at which it really starts to hurt. It took two years for the patience of middle class CFOs to run out with Obama. I rather suspect it may take considerably less time over here. Will we be able to take our nasty medicine without complaint ? Or are we being 'NIMBY' about the cuts - we approve in principle until they actually hit home to us?

 

It's going to be an interesting few months.